Jacques Vallee - CAIPAN Workshop 2014

Transcript

well I'd like to do two things I'd like to um go over some of the history that uh has already been mentioned by Eduardo and by several speakers and then I'd like to talk a little bit to try to go above the the the problem look at General strategy questions and things that have frustrated me personally over over the years um but first I'd like to say big a big thank you to to you Xavier and to the cnes for organizing this this is really a dream come true for many of us you should know that we've really had this dream of bringing together all the you know all the people who have given their time to This research and and compare notes I think it's it's really great so thank you um now I have to master this technology I I'll push this okay this is roughly what I'd like to do first um give a a brief history of uh uh data collection and retrieval systems going over some of the material that has been mentioned um I've been involved most recently with a project in the United States called capella that I'd like to describe generally and then I'd like to ask the question you know in science when you're confronted with a new phenomenon there are two things you need to do you need to make a list which we've never done of what is it that needs to be explained and then you have to make a list of researchers issues starting from ideology doesn't get you anywhere and I think we we need to go through a turning point in the study of of this whole domain away from ideology we're not as several speakers have said before we're not here to prove that we're being visited by you know aliens from this planet or that star that may very well be true but we have not done the basic work and if tomorrow there was the so-called disclosure that many researchers in in America are hoping for we would be unable to answer a number of very basic questions and that's what I I would like to call your attention to those those questions today so I've I've tried to do a a rough this is not complete and we we all know it's not complete but I want to show the the major uh phases of the cataloging of of UFOs um it it really all started with Project Blue Book in the 1950s 1954 hir The battel Institute which is a which is a major think tank in the United States based in Ohio to do really the first compilation of cases received by US Air Force and they they issued their famous report in 1954-55 um HCK was already involved as Dr Alan Heek as the Scientific Advisor to the air force uh that project was U the whole Project Blue Book was terminated with the Condon report that compiled its own um catalog as uh as mentioned before um the during the Condon report the eup forat catalog was started by Saunders and I donated at that point my catalog of about 3,000 cases that I had started with my wife I had really started collecting things in the late 50s and my wife and I compiled the first catalog in 1962 based on the files of geek can see and on the um on the files of a Michelle and on our own data and then um CL poir of course started his his own catalog the jaon uh with uh and these are not the names of the managers these are the names of the people who actually worked on the compilation of the database Jean jaac Vasco and now your uh the Larry Hatch catalog is inactive a number of these cataloges have not continued um Dr Dr Haynes uh and Dominic Weinstein have continued their with the pilot sightings database um under bigo Aerospace under two organization the National Institute for Discovery Science and the bigo Aerospace uh spatial systems developed a number of cataloges and that is now inactive and so you can you can see how many are still collecting Act ly there are a number of other efforts in other countries with Felix Professor Felix zigel in in Russia and uh of course the UK uh Ministry of defense and so on so there are a number of these uh experiences from which we can draw many useful lessons capella uh was um when um Robert Bigalow at bigo Aerospace asked me to help um create a a data reparatory for his Institute I told him you probably don't want a database uh what and in in Industry today I think we've moved um very much beyond the idea of databases to the idea of a data warehouse where you have a number of cataloges or a number of databases that may or may not have uh exchanges of data within them based on the nature of the data and the nature of the project um so we built a data warehouse with 11 different databases collected both internally and externally um including for example the Blue Book database but also including some proprietary internal uh data that that we uh recovered um the the database had a number of links to external uh non-structured data like photographs radar data recordings videos maps and uh satellites so that um there was a very wide uh range of types of informations that could be uh collected together for specific U purposes um so the the question arises of what is it that is researchable if tomorrow um for example the US government said okay you know UFOs are real uh there would be a lot of pressure on all of us to come up with a number of very legitimate answers to which we have absolutely no answer for example are there global patterns in the data well we think there are and we have bits and pieces of of answers but we don't have something if you were called tomorrow before the French Academy of Sciences you would have a lot of trouble talking about global patterns in the data what are the physical facts of a phenomenon I don't think we would agree on that if we took a uh if we had a general discussion on that what is a phenomena are there special locations where it manifest or is it pretty much all over the place what are the social and cultural factors what is the impact on humans that hasn't been mentioned so far in this discussion and what methodology is applicable especially what software technology is applicable so let's talk about global patterns and I'll go very quickly through these categories how long has this phenomena manifested when did it start start did it start in on June 24 1947 with Kenneth Arnold on in his airplane or did it start in with the airships in uh 1896 or did it start with the Roman Empire that question is question that I'm very interested in and I'm working trying to to to get some data to answer that question but I think again that question is very open what are the overall patterns from the available data is there a pseudo random model Behind these events we've talked about waves but these waves are not periodic now there is a whole field of mathematics that has to do with waves that are not periodic and they are extremely interesting they are also very interesting in sociology or in Psychology we have not really looked at that um does it suggest ongoing interaction of something with Humanity something that could be internal or that could be external I think we have to answer that before we start talking about you know aliens from somewhere is there a cyclical patterns of waves that can be used to forecast the timing and localization of future waves I mean if that's true then we can go there with special equipment and catch them we haven't done that yet is it correlated with natural cycles physical astronomical biological so what relationships emerge when witness centered parameters are taken into account does the phenomenon select its Witnesses the physics okay we think we know a lot about the physics of UFOs well what are the various types of manifestations is an orb is it a flying saucer when does an Flying Saucer turn into an orb um what about light sound structured objects how do they combine in different situations we have examples of all of those in single cases and in Combined cases how do we solve them out what are the measurable effects what can we measure we we can measure light energy output material composition Compass readings magnetic remant radioactivity there a number of things we can measure are we consistently doing that and in what cases does it make sense to measure that uh if uh somebody sees a globe of light coming through the wall of their bedroom in the middle of the night what are the things you want to measure what new equipment needs to be designed to improve collection preservation analysis how many cases involve impact on plant life on insect life have we really looked into that how can insects and microorganisms be recruited as enhanced detectors or as measuring devices we really haven't done that why is there no reliable authenticated photograph of a uip with appreciable detail is it the problem is a problem with our equipment or is it a feature of the phenomenon that it does something so that the photographs are not corresponding to the visual description that a reliable witness is giving us and we have cases exactly like that special locations what are the characteristics of information rich areas um The bigo Institute actually bought a a piece of land in the middle of UT where there were intense manifestations over the years and instrumented it so that we could capture everything all the time uh C devance Yakima Valley the orals cluster in Russia has dalan and so on I mean how many of these are there and are they really significant or not how does the behavior of phenomenon change when it's confronted with special measures it seems sometimes that the phenomenon loves gadgets gadgets going from cameras satellites um all kinds of magnetometers it it likes to play with them likes to do something with them um how do you design something that will resist that kind of environment what could be expected from special observation programs at specific l locations cultural factors did the phenomenon really change its behavior in 1947 or was that a side effect of the American Media because the end of the war there were the atomic explosions there were American mythology and American imagery changed completely in 1947 um can we look at other parts of the world and see if there was a change um How does a phen on evolve as a function of geography culture physical parameters if you go to India and you talk to people about strange things in the sky and strange lights and strange creatures coming out of it they've been talking about that for the last 2,000 years I mean what else is new okay so uh how does the culture affect the kind of data or the kinds of reports that we're going to be getting uh I had certainly that experience in in Brazil how does the phenomenon react to human technology sensors nuclear devices High Technologies are there global Cycles in the phenomenon's relationship to humanity and vice versa does it like to that do do the waves coincide with intense changes for example with the landing on the moon or with uh specific space um space projects or with atomic explosions does the phenomenon anticipate or mimic our inventions as seems to be the case with the um the the cigar cases in in the 19th century uh is that simply an effect of the press or hes or is there really something about the the phenomenon itself in its image its appearance and uh does it show a special interest in Social upheavals or Wars or times of intense emotional energy in on our planet finally what's the impact on humans and this is probably something that has been least analyzed what is the range of physiological and pathological effects on humans and animals we have lots of anecdotes but have I I is very an MD in the room is there a medical doctor in the room you're an MD you're one um does that vary across cultures how do these effects vary with distance altitude type of object time of day and so on under what circumstances does the interaction result in benefits from humans healing that's sometimes reported enhanced consciousness um what are the characteristics of situations where it's a threat to humans as opposed to other apparent behavior and under what circumstances is communication whatever it is reported by the witnesses finally methodology can analysis disclose evidence of a control system and by control system I don't mean an outside intelligence necessarily I mean ecology is a control system you know the weather is a control system uh the uh ocean is a control system we we're surrounded with Control Systems some of them are artificial some of them are natural does it is there evidence is there a way of finding out if it's a control system uh in this room there is a control system which which is the air conditioning system in the room the temperature right now is the same as the temperature at 10:00 in the morning well can we prove that well we could prove that by starting a fire you know if if we start burning the stage here presumably there will be some source of cold air that will start running and we can detect that and then we know we're inside the control system well can we do that with this phenomenon can we determine what is the reference signal in this room it would be heat well what is it that triggers that makes the UFO phenomenon appear what should the size and scope of the database be in order to support hypothesis testing do we have enough data and that was you know the question that Mikel asked and that you know Eduardo asked you know how big does how many cases do we need of of what type before we can start asking the questions we want to ask how sensitive is it to culture language Epoch what form of reasoning is appropriate deductive inductive abductive reasoning there is a basic problem in epistemology here that we have not posed really what are the patterns of mimicry used by the phenomenon does it mimic something in in our behavior Can we separate the underlying technology from things that it may be simulating when we see something in the shape of a rocket is it really a rocket or is it can it take different can it present different looks or different images to us uh our technology can do that already I mean you know look at the stealth look at the the advanced Fighters that we have look at the the the drones we we're already projecting simulacra in in a lot of different situations so this is not um completely weird and finally can we test our hypothesis reliably in other words given a hypothesis with good statistical support could a skeptic or an outside Skeptics prove the opposite hypothesis mean if you give me a catalog of UFOs and you give me a hypothesis I can prove your hypothesis but if somebody else gives me the opposite hypothesis I can also prove it and that's a very interesting logical problem it's not an unknown problem it's a problem that happens in many cases happens in physics you know if you can you can prove that waves and you can prove particles but waves and particles are not compatible okay but you you have to deal with the two different situations you can prove the hypothesis that light is a wave you can also prove the hypothesis that light is a particle now I'd like to conclude with one I think very important observation that all these things we can research today with the talent that is in this room with the current tools available to science this is not like what cnes does mean cnes develops new new science new technology new tools to new sensors we don't need to do that we have all the current tools to to address the problems I have listed uh without any preconceived ideology and without using the Extraterrestrial hypothesis as a dominant hypothesis to be tested now we can we can do that with the tools of science what what are we afraid of I mean that's the main question i' I've had for many years now why don't we do it now a lot of work has already been done by scientists by people like clo po like people like Peter Stuart people like alen heck U we've been using our scientific training and many of you in the room we've used our scientific training to apply it to this problem that's not science that's not what science does science starts from from that that kind of um volunteer you know passion but then you need resources you need structure you need the kinds of things that uh Mikel has been has been showing us you need collaboration you need some form of institution so that you can move forward so future projects will need long-term vision and support they there are no magical Technical Solutions there is no computer you can buy with special software that will solve the problem the tools and here I'm speaking as as a software you know as a as a computer um geek uh the the tools uh have to admit unstructured data which means SQL you know we may have to go to a nosql structure it has to handle natural language we yes we need structured questionnaire but by now I mean this is 2014 we know how to analyze natural language um we need to process graphic information the Deep knowledge of the phenomenon in the field is essential a database is only as good as access to the people who put the data in the database if you don't have those people and by the way we're getting older if you don't have those people the databases workplace it's essentially a bucket of bits you know it's essentially something in a computer but you need the people who have a deep knowledge of those cases the people who remember who went to the field and and studied it they you need to support different communities and then localized studies are an ideal test bed and in that respect I'd like to point to uh Jean FR boak's analysis which is I think one of the posters about a study he did in Britany uh of of a very specific region of France where he studied all the cases that he could get and did special statistics I think that kind of thing on the local level if you can generalize it to different areas will be extremely uh valuable the the main thing I'd like to leave you with is that the euphology has no ontology someone said earlier that we're in the same situation as a naturalist classifying insects or plants well if you classify insects you may not know what that insect is but you know how you can tell how many legs it has how many wings how many eyes here we don't have that we don't know we only we only Define UFOs by exclusion you know somebody comes with a report and it's not this and it's not that it's not the moon it's not a cloud and it's not a satellite and it's not a meteor therefore it ends up being we end up calling it a UAP or UFO there there is a problem like that in mathematics it's prime numbers if I give you you know 52123326ab you say prime numbers are among the positive you know odd integers that can only be divided by one and themselves and you test them by looking at all the positive know odd integers up to the square root of that number and after you do that you know which can take a long time if you have a 40 digigit number then you would find you will find out if it's prime or not and uh the definition we have of UFOs was a definition that H and I produced back in the 60s which is exactly that U uaps are found among the set of reports that do not correspond to um All the known natural phenomena that we have tested against and so we have no onology which is a big problem for you know for the software because in if the cnes hires me as a programmer to make a catalog of all the parts in this satellite you know I would have to be a very bad programmer if I couldn't do that because every part in that satellite has a part number and it's described very precisely with UFOs we don't have that and we have to handle you know it's a a big challenge that that we have to with non-structured data thank you very [Music] much